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Tags: 2011 General Election

Political Parties – New Zealand First:omnibus excerpt

From week ending 2 December 2011

Prior to the election, we provided a series of précis of the policy positions of parties relevant to Māori social, economic and treaty matters.  We did not provide an analysis of the New Zealand First Party (NZ First), as the party was not represented in parliament in the last session.  However, the election result now shows that NZ First will enter parliament next year with eight members.  Results also show that this party received good support in the Māori electorate seats, above that of the National Party for example (refer above).

NZ First has a Māori Affairs policy framework.  The party makes the point that Māori experience significant social and economic disparities compared to non-Māori; and these disparities ‘must be confronted’ to ensure Māori are have the same life chances as others.  That is, the party’s view is that any services provided must be based on social and economic need (not treaty or first nation rights), but that such needs do exist within the Māori population, and therefore warrant assistance from Government.

The policy proposes a mix of restarting programmes that are said to have run from the Department of Māori Affairs prior to the 1990s, such as trade-training, and mention is also made of further empowering traditional Māori social service providers (Māori Wardens, the Māori Women’s Welfare League, etc).  However the driving policy principle is somewhat unclear, in that the policy text also appears to advocate for further devolution of services to Māori to mainstream agencies, referencing back to ‘Ka Awatea’.  (Ka Awatea is the name of a 1991 Māori policy framework centred on devolving services to general agencies, which was advanced when Winston Peters was Minister of Māori Affairs in a National Government).   Below we have provided a review of the policy proposals against the variables used to consider other parties.

Salient Policy Positions of Interest from a Māori Policy Perspective
 Policies NZ First
Policies that explicitly seek to strengthen constitutional considerations pertaining to the Treaty of Waitangi No
Policies that explicitly support retaining Māori electorates / seats in parliament No
Policies that explicitly propose ‘enhancements’ in Treaty settlements No
Policies that seek to increase the use of Te Reo within communities Yes
Policies that explicitly focus on increasing services / collective interventions for  at-risk whānau / children / or young people Yes
Policies that support minimum wage increases and/or welfare support increases No
Policies that explicitly  focus on support / interventions for Māori at retirement age Yes
Policies that focus on improving the utility of Māori land / physical assets Yes
Policies that explicitly focus on increasing Māori input on natural resource issues No
Provision of financial projections to pay for social commitments being proposed No

Māori members of parliament: omnibus excerpt

From week ending 2 December 2011

Parliament will commence in February with nineteen Māori members; comprised of the seven members in the Māori electorate seats, four in general seats, and eight from party list members.  This represents 16% of the 121 seats in parliament.  We note this closely matches the proportion of Māori in the population 15%, and that without Māori electorate seats, Māori representation would be only 9%.  Incoming/returning Māori members of parliament are:

Labour Party Shane Jones, Rino Tirikatene,  Parekura Horomia, Nanaia Mahuta, Louisa Wall
National Party Paula Bennett, Simon Bridges, Jami-Lee Ross, Hekia Parata and Tau Henare
Māori Party Tariana Turia, Pita Sharples, Te Ururoa Flavel
Green Party Metiria Turei, Dave Clendon, Denise Roche
 

Mana Party

 

Hone Harawira

New Zealand First Winston Peters, Brendan Horan

 In 2008, the Māori Party gained five of the seven Māori electorate seats.  In this election, the Māori Party has gained three seats, with the Labour Party also gaining three seats, and the Mana Party gaining one seat.  In the seats still held by the Māori Party, winning margins have also fallen significantly, dropping by approximately 25 percentile points in all of these seats; while the Labour and Mana Parties gained support. 

These changes show significant voter movement away from the Māori Party since 2008.  Overall, 34,000 people on the Māori electoral roll gave their candidate vote to a Māori Party candidate in 2011, which is less than half of the 77,000 equivalent votes the party received in 2008 (i.e a fall of 44,000 voters).  Put another way, in 2008, more than one in two voters on the Māori electoral roll voted for the Māori Party candidate, in 2011, the equivalent ratio is slightly below one in three.  

From week ending 2 December 2011

Māori Electorates – Party Vote: omnibus excerpt

 From week ending December 2, 2011

The General Election has returned the National Party to Government with 48% of the Party Vote, and a total of 60 seats out of 121[1].  The National Party will be entering confidence and supply agreements with the ACT Party (1 seat) and the United Future Party (1 seat), to secure a majority of votes in parliament.  The National Party is also likely to enter into a further conference and supply agreement with the Māori Party, (discussed further below).

Māori electorate voting patterns, however, were an inverse to those of people on the general roll.  As shown in the tables below, with their party vote, people on the Māori electoral roll voted most often voted for parties on the political left, particularly the Labour Party.  This analysis shows that the newly forming National Government is not well supported by Māori electorate voters.

Comparison of Māori and General party voting patterns Māori seats – party votes All seats – party votes
Labour Party 40% 27%
Māori Party 15% 1%
Mana Party 12% 1%
Green Party 10% 11%
NZ First Party 10% 7%
National Party 8% 48%
Other parties 4% 5%

  In our analysis, salient aspects of party voting in Māori electorates are:

  • four of ten of these voters supported the Labour Party, 40%, and less than one in ten supported the National Party, 8%;
  • in 2008 the Māori Party received 28% of these votes, but in 2011 this fell thirteen percentile points to 15% – while the ‘break-away’ Mana Party received 12% of party votes in these seats in this election;
  • the Green Party vote, 10%, is consistent with the proportion received from the general electoral roll, 11%;
  • voters on this roll are more likely to vote for the New Zealand First Party, 10%, than their counterparts the general electoral roll, 7%; and
  • the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, with 1,291 votes received over 600 percent more support from these voters than the ACT Party.

 


[1] Results remain provisional and have not yet been confirmed by the Electoral Commission.