Māori Electorates – Party Vote: omnibus excerpt
From week ending December 2, 2011
The General Election has returned the National Party to Government with 48% of the Party Vote, and a total of 60 seats out of 121[1]. The National Party will be entering confidence and supply agreements with the ACT Party (1 seat) and the United Future Party (1 seat), to secure a majority of votes in parliament. The National Party is also likely to enter into a further conference and supply agreement with the Māori Party, (discussed further below).
Māori electorate voting patterns, however, were an inverse to those of people on the general roll. As shown in the tables below, with their party vote, people on the Māori electoral roll voted most often voted for parties on the political left, particularly the Labour Party. This analysis shows that the newly forming National Government is not well supported by Māori electorate voters.
| Comparison of Māori and General party voting patterns | Māori seats – party votes | All seats – party votes |
| Labour Party | 40% | 27% |
| Māori Party | 15% | 1% |
| Mana Party | 12% | 1% |
| Green Party | 10% | 11% |
| NZ First Party | 10% | 7% |
| National Party | 8% | 48% |
| Other parties | 4% | 5% |
In our analysis, salient aspects of party voting in Māori electorates are:
- four of ten of these voters supported the Labour Party, 40%, and less than one in ten supported the National Party, 8%;
- in 2008 the Māori Party received 28% of these votes, but in 2011 this fell thirteen percentile points to 15% – while the ‘break-away’ Mana Party received 12% of party votes in these seats in this election;
- the Green Party vote, 10%, is consistent with the proportion received from the general electoral roll, 11%;
- voters on this roll are more likely to vote for the New Zealand First Party, 10%, than their counterparts the general electoral roll, 7%; and
- the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, with 1,291 votes received over 600 percent more support from these voters than the ACT Party.
[1] Results remain provisional and have not yet been confirmed by the Electoral Commission.